Spadea lost, just like he always does

Over the past year, Bill Spadea has used the corporate resources of Townsquare Media and Oaktree Capital Management in an effort to make Spadea a major player in New Jersey politics.  Those corporate resources are worth tens of millions of dollars and the airtime alone expended by Spadea and his agents would have cost the average political campaign millions to buy.  All it took was a complacent board of directors and a greedy local management for Spadea to accomplish this enormous appropriation of resources and capital.

Spadea accomplished what some would have considered impossible.  He took hold of a wallflower Lt. Governor and tore her away from the Governor who had mentored and promoted her.  Spadea smirked as the Lt. Governor performed stunts for him, like opposing Governor Christie on Ballot Question 2 (a subject she had been in silent approval of until Spadea taught her to sit up and beg, bark, and bite).  The Lt. Governor's Super PAC spent money to defeat Ballot Question 2 as she campaigned across the state on a platform that included advocating for a NO vote on both Question 2 and Donald Trump.

Poor Kim Guadagno.  She lost on both.  This is what happens when you follow the fluttering eyelashes of Billy "the hand" Spadea.  Yep.  A political prognosticator he aint.  Spadea can't help it, because his big ego gets in the way of him seeing clearly.  He wishes it to be, so he believes it will be, even when it won't be.

Spadea has had this problem his whole life.  He thought he was part of an historic wave when he tried to split the RNC and start a far-right third party in the mid-1990's.  That failed.  Then he ran for Congress and lost.  He started his "Red Shirt" movement, the "Building a New Majority" project, promoted a statewide GOP candidate who would transform the Republican Party to remake it in his vision.  Failed, failed, and failed again.  He even set his sights lower, ran for Assembly, and found himself blocked.  Another failure.  Bitterness followed.

Then he was rescued by FOX. Given a late-night "news of a kind" show.  Then the popular host of NJ101.5 had an accident, and Spadea found himself with a lever of power that he quickly learned and used to pursue his personal ambitions.

But Spadea went too far.  Having lost the gas tax vote he decided on the "Big Lie" approach and made up the myth that Ballot Question 2 was a vote on the gas tax.  People like Kim Guadagno believed him, but groups like AFP and ATR saw Spadea's bullshit for what it was.  On Tuesday, Spadea lost once again.

Reason Study author says gas tax must go up

We've all heard about the Reason Foundation study that claimed New Jersey had the most expensive roads in America.  The Reason study was controversial and other studies refuted it -- such as the one coming out of Rutgers University's Voorhees Transportation Center.

Some politicians seized upon the Reason study to argue that cost-cutting efficiencies should be put in place before any more money went to repair and maintain the state's roads and bridges.  We wonder if they would feel the same about the grossly mismanaged Veterans Administration -- close all those hospitals and services and dump the wounded out on the streets until the VA operates more efficiently. 

Others claimed that they could fund the entire Transportation Trust Fund (TTF) with savings from efficiencies and cost-cutting.  No numbers were produced to support this, but in testimony, Barauch Feigenbaum (Reason's Assistant Director of Policy) offered some excellent recommendations as to the areas in which significant savings could be achieved. 

The lamentable fact is that not since 1990 has the state's user tax on gasoline and diesel produced enough revenue to cover the cost to maintain the state's transportation system.  That year the gas tax collected $404.9 million to fund a $365 million transportation program.  The tax on gasoline and diesel hasn't gone up for 28 years, hasn't even kept up with inflation, leading to more and more being borrowed to pay for road and bridge maintenance and repair.  Today the cost of the debt service alone exceeds $1.1 billion.  In contrast, the gas tax collected just a bit more than $750 million in 2015. 

No wonder the author of the Reason study, David Hartgen (Emeritus Professor of Transportation Studies at UNC Charlotte), recently told New Jersey media that there was no way around the revenue problem the now-bankrupt TTF faces: 

Even as some say his report proves that New Jersey must cut costs before hiking the gas tax, Hartgen says the opposite may be true. The transportation trust fund is now $30 billion in debt. Without new revenue from the gas tax or some other source, it cannot spend any money on new construction. 

“I don’t think budget cuts will work,” Hartgen said. “They need to look at the gas tax.”

Beck & Doherty join left wingers to oppose tax cut for retirees

At yesterday's back to back press conferences at the State House in Trenton, GOP Senators Jennifer Beck and Mike Doherty joined with Democrat Senator Ray "Lord of Ass" Lesniak and Democrat Assemblyman John Wisniewski in opposing a plan that would give retirees an average $1,200 tax cut and phase out that destroyer of small businesses and family farms, the estate tax, while preventing an increase in property taxes to pay for local road and bridge repairs and maintenance. 

Beck and Doherty have their own plan, also supported by GOP Senator Gerald Cardinale, that freezes property tax relief to local governments for seven years and borrows heavily to run the state deeper into debt.  The Beck plan makes no tax cuts -- something the state teachers' union agrees with -- and leaves New Jersey's tax structure the worst in the region for retirees and the worst in the nation to grow a business and create jobs.

By refusing to fund roads and bridges through a petroleum-based user tax, the Beck plan gives out-of-state drivers a free ride while pushing the costs of maintenance and repair onto property taxpayers and future generations.  Groups  like AFP, which is funded by the petroleum industry, support Beck and Doherty, as do liberal organizations like the New Jersey Education Association and the Sierra Club.

When it comes to opposing the phase out of the Estate Tax, Liberal Assemblyman Wisniewski and talk show host Bill Spadea are both adamantly opposed.  They part company on a user tax on gasoline, with Wisniewski in support of an increase in the current tax, whereas Spadea would rather see no tax on gasoline at all and instead a substantial property tax increase to pay for roads and bridges.

All this is bound to have ramifications for the 2017 elections -- with the primaries now less than a year away.   How would retired voters behave if individual legislators voted against their $1,200 tax cut?  What would the effect be if it failed to become law and the state's retirees saw their $1,200 tax cut taken away?

In Jennifer Beck's District 11, 48 percent of all registered Republicans are aged 60 or over.  Just 20 percent are under age 45.  66 percent of Republican super voters (3 of 4 or above) are aged 60 or over.

42 percent of all registered Republicans in Mike Doherty's District 23 are aged 60 or over.  Just 21 percent are under age 45.  58 percent of Republican super voters (3 of 4 or above) are aged 60 or over.

In Senator Cardinale's District 39, 47 percent of all registered Republicans are aged 60 or over.  Just 18 percent are under age 45.  64 percent of Republican super voters (3 of 4 or above) are aged 60 or over.

Can these legislators afford to vote against a tax cut for retirees?

Poll: Sen. Beck is "out-of-touch"

Yesterday evening, on the grassy verge of some sad-assed gas station in Freehold, Senator Jennifer Beck rallied the remnants of the Monmouth County Tea Party movement to wave signs (paid for courtesy of the petroleum industry) and cheer on this lobbyist turned politician.  Dozens of tea partiers attended, but hundreds more were missing.   Why? Because they've moved -- just like conservative Senator Steve Oroho warned they would, unless something was done to keep them in New Jersey.

Senator Oroho's plan:  An average $1,200 tax cut for every retiree in New Jersey.

Senator Beck's plan:  Screw those retirees and let's keep paying for out-of-state drivers to have a free ride.

So that accounts for the smaller-than-in-the-past numbers at Beck's rally last night.  Many of the tea partiers who would have been there simply don't live here anymore. They've moved to states like Florida, North Carolina, and Delaware -- just like Senator Oroho warned they would.

Of course, the cause and the people are only a convenient backdrop for the kick-off of Senator Beck's 2017 re-election campaign.  After losing both her running mates to the Democrats last year, Beck is running scared.  She thinks the "anti-gas tax" slogan is a winner -- and that's partly the fault of the leader of her caucus, Senator Tom Kean Jr. 

It was Kean who fed his caucus polling numbers that bear no resemblance to the context in which these issues will be presented in an actual election -- by people with many times the resources Senator Kean and the NJGOP will be able to muster.  In short, the Gag will be upon them and then it will be too late.

But Beck really believes it.  She's bought into the idea that the Democrats (or her primary opponent) will frame the issue as it was framed to her.  Here's what she told NJTV reporter David Cruz at last night's "rally" in Freehold:

"This rally is about making it clear that the people of the state of New Jersey are opposed to a billion dollar, 23-cent gas tax increase. In case anyone wasn’t sure, you should know today that they are absolutely opposed and that you’re really out of touch if you think people are OK with that."

So this is the Gag...

Earlier this month, a poll was conducted in Monmouth County by a well-known, nationally-recognized survey research firm.  Now Monmouth County is far more Republican than is Legislative District 11 -- Senator Beck's district.  So one would think that the county as a whole would be more anti-gas tax than her Democrat-leaning district.  And that turned out to be true, because the pollster broke the county data down by legislative district.

We're releasing some of the county data but not the district data.  That's because we would like to be instructive but not prejudicial.  So here's how the data looks, when you place it in a campaign context:

T10. Thinking now about New Jersey’s Transportation Trust Fund, and different proposals to fund the maintenance and repair of roads and bridges. One proposal would borrow 4.4 billion dollars and freeze education funding for seven years, and would avoid having to raise the state gas tax. Knowing this information, do you support or oppose this proposal?

Total Support .......................................................... 41%

Total Oppose .......................................................... 47%

Strongly Support ...................................................... 19%

Somewhat Support .................................................. 22%

Strongly Oppose ..................................................... 35%

Somewhat Oppose .................................................. 12%

Unsure, No Opinion ............................................... 12%

T11. The Transportation Trust Fund is funded by the state gas tax, and is nearly out of money. When it runs out of money, county and local governments will have to raise property taxes to pay for road and bridge maintenance repairs. Knowing this information, which of the following do you think is the best option to pay for repairs to roads and bridges?  An increase in the state gas tax or an increase in property taxes?

Gas tax .................................................................... 73%

Property tax ............................................................... 6%

Unsure or No Opinion ............................................ 21%

T12. Approximately one third of gas tax revenues in New Jersey is paid by out-of-state travelers, while 100% of property taxes are paid by New Jersey residents. Knowing this information, which of the following do you think is the best option to pay for improvements to roads and bridges, and increase in the state gas tax or an increase in property taxes?

Gas tax .................................................................... 81%

Property tax ............................................................... 3%

Unsure or No Opinion ............................................ 16%

T13. As you may know, New Jersey is at risk of losing 1.6 billion dollars in federal funds for road repairs and maintenance, which would lead to an increase in property taxes. Knowing this, would you support or oppose a proposal to increase the state gas tax to minimize the increase in property taxes? 

Total Support .......................................................... 77%

Total Oppose .......................................................... 16%

Strongly Support ...................................................... 58%

Somewhat Support .................................................. 19%

Strongly Oppose ..................................................... 13%

Somewhat Oppose .................................................... 3%

Unsure, No Opinion ................................................. 7%

T14. Would you support or oppose a proposal that would increase the state gas tax and eliminate other taxes, like the state tax on retirement income? 

Total Support .......................................................... 69%

Total Oppose .......................................................... 18%

Strongly Support ...................................................... 48%

Somewhat Support .................................................. 21%

Strongly Oppose ..................................................... 13%

Somewhat Oppose .................................................... 5%

Unsure, No Opinion ............................................... 13%

T15. A proposed increase in the state gas tax would cost the average driver an extra 200 dollars each year. Eliminating the state tax on retirement income would save the average retiree more than twelve hundred dollars each year. Knowing this information, would you support or oppose a proposal that would increase the state gas tax and eliminate the state tax on retirement income at the same time?

Total Support .......................................................... 74%

Total Oppose .......................................................... 14%

Strongly Support ...................................................... 58%

Somewhat Support .................................................. 16%

Strongly Oppose ..................................................... 12%

Somewhat Oppose .................................................... 2%

Unsure, No Opinion ............................................... 12%

Does the Gagging ever end?  No, it never ends.  It just goes on and on...