Poll: Sen. Beck is "out-of-touch"
/
Yesterday evening, on the grassy verge of some sad-assed gas station in Freehold, Senator Jennifer Beck rallied the remnants of the Monmouth County Tea Party movement to wave signs (paid for courtesy of the petroleum industry) and cheer on this lobbyist turned politician. Dozens of tea partiers attended, but hundreds more were missing. Why? Because they've moved -- just like conservative Senator Steve Oroho warned they would, unless something was done to keep them in New Jersey.
Senator Oroho's plan: An average $1,200 tax cut for every retiree in New Jersey.
Senator Beck's plan: Screw those retirees and let's keep paying for out-of-state drivers to have a free ride.
So that accounts for the smaller-than-in-the-past numbers at Beck's rally last night. Many of the tea partiers who would have been there simply don't live here anymore. They've moved to states like Florida, North Carolina, and Delaware -- just like Senator Oroho warned they would.
Of course, the cause and the people are only a convenient backdrop for the kick-off of Senator Beck's 2017 re-election campaign. After losing both her running mates to the Democrats last year, Beck is running scared. She thinks the "anti-gas tax" slogan is a winner -- and that's partly the fault of the leader of her caucus, Senator Tom Kean Jr.
It was Kean who fed his caucus polling numbers that bear no resemblance to the context in which these issues will be presented in an actual election -- by people with many times the resources Senator Kean and the NJGOP will be able to muster. In short, the Gag will be upon them and then it will be too late.
But Beck really believes it. She's bought into the idea that the Democrats (or her primary opponent) will frame the issue as it was framed to her. Here's what she told NJTV reporter David Cruz at last night's "rally" in Freehold:
"This rally is about making it clear that the people of the state of New Jersey are opposed to a billion dollar, 23-cent gas tax increase. In case anyone wasn’t sure, you should know today that they are absolutely opposed and that you’re really out of touch if you think people are OK with that."
So this is the Gag...
Earlier this month, a poll was conducted in Monmouth County by a well-known, nationally-recognized survey research firm. Now Monmouth County is far more Republican than is Legislative District 11 -- Senator Beck's district. So one would think that the county as a whole would be more anti-gas tax than her Democrat-leaning district. And that turned out to be true, because the pollster broke the county data down by legislative district.
We're releasing some of the county data but not the district data. That's because we would like to be instructive but not prejudicial. So here's how the data looks, when you place it in a campaign context:
T10. Thinking now about New Jersey’s Transportation Trust Fund, and different proposals to fund the maintenance and repair of roads and bridges. One proposal would borrow 4.4 billion dollars and freeze education funding for seven years, and would avoid having to raise the state gas tax. Knowing this information, do you support or oppose this proposal?
Total Support .......................................................... 41%
Total Oppose .......................................................... 47%
Strongly Support ...................................................... 19%
Somewhat Support .................................................. 22%
Strongly Oppose ..................................................... 35%
Somewhat Oppose .................................................. 12%
Unsure, No Opinion ............................................... 12%
T11. The Transportation Trust Fund is funded by the state gas tax, and is nearly out of money. When it runs out of money, county and local governments will have to raise property taxes to pay for road and bridge maintenance repairs. Knowing this information, which of the following do you think is the best option to pay for repairs to roads and bridges? An increase in the state gas tax or an increase in property taxes?
Gas tax .................................................................... 73%
Property tax ............................................................... 6%
Unsure or No Opinion ............................................ 21%
T12. Approximately one third of gas tax revenues in New Jersey is paid by out-of-state travelers, while 100% of property taxes are paid by New Jersey residents. Knowing this information, which of the following do you think is the best option to pay for improvements to roads and bridges, and increase in the state gas tax or an increase in property taxes?
Gas tax .................................................................... 81%
Property tax ............................................................... 3%
Unsure or No Opinion ............................................ 16%
T13. As you may know, New Jersey is at risk of losing 1.6 billion dollars in federal funds for road repairs and maintenance, which would lead to an increase in property taxes. Knowing this, would you support or oppose a proposal to increase the state gas tax to minimize the increase in property taxes?
Total Support .......................................................... 77%
Total Oppose .......................................................... 16%
Strongly Support ...................................................... 58%
Somewhat Support .................................................. 19%
Strongly Oppose ..................................................... 13%
Somewhat Oppose .................................................... 3%
Unsure, No Opinion ................................................. 7%
T14. Would you support or oppose a proposal that would increase the state gas tax and eliminate other taxes, like the state tax on retirement income?
Total Support .......................................................... 69%
Total Oppose .......................................................... 18%
Strongly Support ...................................................... 48%
Somewhat Support .................................................. 21%
Strongly Oppose ..................................................... 13%
Somewhat Oppose .................................................... 5%
Unsure, No Opinion ............................................... 13%
T15. A proposed increase in the state gas tax would cost the average driver an extra 200 dollars each year. Eliminating the state tax on retirement income would save the average retiree more than twelve hundred dollars each year. Knowing this information, would you support or oppose a proposal that would increase the state gas tax and eliminate the state tax on retirement income at the same time?
Total Support .......................................................... 74%
Total Oppose .......................................................... 14%
Strongly Support ...................................................... 58%
Somewhat Support .................................................. 16%
Strongly Oppose ..................................................... 12%
Somewhat Oppose .................................................... 2%
Unsure, No Opinion ............................................... 12%
Does the Gagging ever end? No, it never ends. It just goes on and on...
