Like in 1991, the NJGOP needs to hold a convention.

Take yourself back to September 1991.  The legislative midterm elections were less than two months away.  New Jersey was in the second year of a Democrat Governor, following eight Republican years.  The State Senate had not been in GOP hands for 18 years.  The Assembly was last Republican in 1989. 

1,032 delegates from across New Jersey attended the State Republican Convention that year.  They were exhorted by former Governor Tom Kean, who reminded them “that they must do more than criticize Florio and Democratic lawmakers” to wrest control of the Statehouse in the November elections: “People want to know what you're for, not just what you're against,” he said. “Attacking the present administration is not enough.”

The delegates discussed and debated issues… adopted a state party platform… and defined who they were.  In November, Republicans won a landslide victory and took control of both chambers of the Legislature.  Two years later, they took the Governor’s office too.

In contrast to last month’s gathering of the GOP in Atlantic City, the 1991 convention at Rutgers University was about policy, message, and people – it had a grassroots feel to it.  While the current state party operation is dominated by Trenton-centered professional operatives and consultants, in 1991 the party was still one of stakeholders – people with networks in their communities and districts.

New Jersey Republicans are suffering a crisis of identity.  And it’s not just the old controversies over social issues.  The current “favorite” for Governor in 2021 – former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli – called Donald Trump a “charlatan” who is “out of step with the Party of Lincoln” and an “embarrassment to the nation.”

The NJGOP can’t seem to make up its mind on something as basic as the tax restructuring package – championed by former Governor Chris Christie – that ended the Estate Tax, cut a bevy of other taxes, prevented a huge property tax hike, and provided enough property tax relief to enable places like Warren County to actually cut property taxes.  Some Republicans seem determined to run against one of Governor Christie’s hallmark accomplishments.  Let’s hash this thing out once and for all.  

Legalizing the sale and use of recreational marijuana is another issue.  Although both Senate Republican Leader Tom Kean Jr. and Assembly Republican Leader Jon Bramnick have done admirable jobs of holding their delegations together on this – there are all these lobbyists occupying party office who are nibbling away at the resolve of individual legislators and there is no formal party position on this or any other issue of substance.

A convention could be just the thing to resolve these conflicts, to pull everyone together around what we agree on, our principles and objectives, to create a message, and build that message out with a platform of policies – which could then be fleshed out by people like Regina Egea and her Garden State Initiative.  Thus far, the only prescriptions offered by the NJGOP have been which consultant a candidate should hire or new “game changing” technology to employ.  These do not take the place of having an actual message to run on – as the past few election cycles have shown. 

Once upon a time, New Jersey Republicans knew how to tell their story.  Now it seems they’ve lost the art – or at least the plot.  Nothing like a gathering to bring everyone together to remember who they are, put it down on paper… and then go out and sell it.

How Steve Oroho finished what Jay Webber started

In the Legislature, you can be a conservative in one of two ways... broadly speaking.  One way is to be a conscience, sit above it all, and vote accordingly.  You could not find a more perfect example of this than Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll, who negotiates the prickly halls of Trenton with a Zen assuredness.  He always knows the right thing to do... and he always does it.  Instead of the wilting figure of John McCann, the YR's and CR's could do no better than to adopt Assemblyman Carroll as their Sensei.

The other way is to wade into the muck in an attempt to climb aboard the ship of state and steer it in a more desirable direction.  Sometimes the engine isn't even working and you might need to get down into the boiler room -- knee deep in waste -- and grapple with the machinery of government, just to get it sputtering in some direction.

Assemblyman Jay Webber takes this course... to a point.  He seems well enough suited to steer, but when it comes to the engine room, he doesn't want to get his hands dirty.  That's where he differs from Senator Steve Oroho.  Oroho accepts that he will have to endure the heat and muck in order to get the machine running -- and he doesn't mind busting a knuckle or two while grabbling with a boiler wrench.

A prime example are their differing approaches to preventing the Transportation Trust Fund (TTF) from going bankrupt and ending the Estate Tax.  Two very conservative causes.  The TTF, funded by a gas tax, was right out of the Reagan mantra of using user taxes to fund public infrastructure.  Those who use the roads should pay for them, said Reagan, no free rides!  While the death tax -- which is what an Estate Tax is -- has been identified by conservatives for years as the destroyer of small businesses and the ruination of family farms.

Jay Webber waded into the issue assuredly enough.  On October 14, 2014, the Star-Ledger published a column by the Assemblyman.  It's title was "Fixing transportation and taxes together."  Webber was writing about how to raise the gas tax to re-fund the nearly bankrupt TTF, while offsetting that tax increase with cuts to other taxes.  He zeroed in on the Estate Tax:

"NEW JERSEY leaders are grappling with three major problems: First, New Jersey has the worst tax burden in the nation. Two, New Jersey's economy suffers from sluggish growth. And third, our state's Transportation Trust Fund is out of money. There is a potential principled compromise that can help solve all of them.

Of the three problems, the Transportation Trust Fund has been getting the most attention lately, and for good reason: It's broke. There is just no money in it to maintain and improve our vital infrastructure. Without finding a solution, we risk watching our roads and bridges grow unsafe and unusable and hinder movement of people and goods throughout the state. That, of course, will exacerbate our state's slow economic growth.

...we should insist that if any tax is raised to restore the TTF, it be coupled with the elimination of a tax that is one of our state's biggest obstacles to economic growth: the death tax. By any measure, New Jersey is the most extreme outlier on the death tax, with worst-in-the-nation status...

New Jersey's death tax is not a concern for the wealthy alone, as many misperceive. We are one of only two states with both an estate and inheritance tax. New Jersey's estate-tax threshold of $675,000, combined with a tax rate as high as 16 percent, means that middle-class families with average-sized homes and small retirement savings are hit hard by the tax.

It also means the tax affects small businesses or family farms of virtually any size, discouraging investment and growth among our private-sector job creators. Compounding the inequity is that government already has taxed the assets subject to the death tax when the money was earned. Because of our onerous estate and inheritance taxes, Forbes magazine lists New Jersey as a place "Not to Die" in 2014.

That's a problem, and it's one our sister states are trying hard not to duplicate. A recent study by Connecticut determined that states with no estate tax created twice as many jobs and saw their economies grow 50 percent more than states with estate taxes. That research prompted Connecticut and many states to reform their death taxes. New York just lowered its death tax, and several other states have eliminated theirs.

The good news is that New Jersey's leaders finally are realizing that our confiscatory death tax is a big deal. A bipartisan coalition of legislators has shown its support for reforming New Jersey's death tax..."

Taking Webber's lead, Senator Steve Oroho got to work and began the painstakingly long process of negotiation with the majority Democrats.  Oroho was animated by the basic unfairness that New Jersey taxpayers were under-writing out-of-state drivers to the tune of a half-billion dollars a year.  He understood that if the TTF went bankrupt, the cost would flip to county and local governments... resulting in an average $500 property tax increase.  Oroho went to battle to prevent this disaster and even had to stand up to Governor Chris Christie, who wanted to end negotiations too soon and accept a weaker deal from the Democrats.

Unfortunately, Assemblyman Webber didn't stick with it.  When the time came for Jay Webber to be counted as part of that bipartisan coalition, he couldn't be counted on.  Jay got scared off by the lobbyist arm of the petroleum industry and what's worse is that he started attacking those who did what he advocated doing only a short time before. 

Remember that it was Webber who wrote these words in that column more than three years ago:  "Any gas-tax increase should be accompanied by measures that will help alleviate, or at least not increase, the overall tax burden on New Jerseyans." Jay Webber wrote those words, setting the direction.  Steve Oroho was left on his own to get the job done -- to do the negotiating.  The helmsman had abandoned the engineer. 

Webber said at the time that he believed the bipartisan tax restructuring package worked out by the legislative leaders (minus Senator Tom Kean Jr.) and the Governor would result in a net tax increase.  Oroho and others disagreed with him.  Webber is by all accounts a good lawyer, but Oroho is the numbers man.  He's a certified financial planner and CPA.  Before beginning his career of public service, Steve Oroho was a senior financial officer for S&P 500 companies like W. R. Grace and  Young & Rubicam.  It was this knowledge that enabled him to fashion the compromise that he did -- one that turned out to be the largest tax cut in New Jersey's history.

In the end, the Democrats' 40-cent increase on the gas tax was paired down to 23-cents.  The gas tax, the proceeds from which funds the TTF, had not been adjusted for inflation in 28 years, had not provided enough funding to cover annual operations in 25 years, and wasn't even bringing in enough money to pay the interest on the borrowing that was done to keep operations going (in 2015, the state collected just $750 million from the gas tax while incurring an annual debt cost of $1.1 billion).  Even so, Senator Oroho knew exactly where to draw the line... at the minimalist 23 cents and not the 40 cents the Democrats plausibly argued for.

In the end, the engineer got the job done.  Senator Steve Oroho emerged from the boiler room triumphant.  He ended the Estate Tax and secured tax cuts for retirees, veterans, small businesses, farmers, consumers, and low-income workers.  He secured property tax relief by doubling the TTF's local financial aid to towns and counties -- and prevented a $500 per household property tax hike.  He made out-of-state drivers pay for using New Jersey's roads -- and ensured that New Jerseyans will continue to have safe roads and bridges to drive on.

Oroho's tax cuts were praised by conservative groups like Americans for Tax Reform and conservative publications like Forbes, which called his tax cuts "one of the 5 best state and local tax policy changes in 2016 nationwide." 

That's getting something done.   

Murphy wants to raise taxes. Pity there's not enough GOP legislators to stop him.

And whose fault is that?

The NJGOP Establishment's second blog (both appeared during the Christie Project, the New Jersey Globe being the latest incarnation of the project's first one) decided to prate a bit over Governor Phil Murphy's threat to undo part of the compromise reached in 2016 and raise the state sales tax to 7 percent.  The NJGOP Establishment's blog thinks this an "I told you so" moment when, as anyone with even a little gray matter should know, Governor Murphy was not part of the 2016 compromise, as he did not take office until January of 2018.

In fact, the compromise is working very well for New Jersey.  The state's infrastructure is being repaired, restored, and improved upon.  Out-of-state drivers who use our roads have assumed more of the responsibility for paying for them.  More infrastructure funding is flowing to counties and municipalities, with the result that property taxes are being held in check or -- in some cases -- actually reduced.  And revenues from state taxes -- in particular, the state income tax -- are increasing above projections.  Now the Democrats who control the Legislature (some of whom participated in the 2016 compromise) might wish to jeopardize this in order to fulfill the election promises made by candidate Murphy, or they might not.  Time will tell.

The Establishment blog makes an argument against legislative compromise, calling it "unadulterated BS."  Of course, the writer cannot be so stupid as to fail to see that the Founders of our Republic fashioned a system to ensure such compromise.  Indeed, compromise has been the working necessity of every representative democracy since the beginning of Western history. 

Now compromise is quite different than surrender.  Compromise is when you give something and get something back in return.  Like re-funding the Transportation Trust Fund (TTF) through an increase in the gas tax for doing away with the Estate Tax, plus four other taxes, while doubling the flow of money to counties and municipalities for property tax relief. 

This is different from what the NJGOP normally does.  Because what the NJGOP normally does is to provide votes for far-left Democrat legislation for free -- for NOTHING in return.  Yes, they just give it away.  Like they did on legislation to end the death penalty, impose the Highlands Act, fund Planned Parenthood, give tax money to illegal immigrants, pass the original sales tax increase, and gut the Second Amendment.  Heck, the other day, legislators in the NJGOP leadership cast their votes to allow people to re-write their own birth certificates and pretend that they were born one way, when they (as a matter of genetic science) were born another.  It seems science only matters when we're talking climate change. 

They gave away all this for free... and got back NOTHING in return.  And our Establishment blog criticized it not a word.

The Establishment blog complains bitterly about the lack of leadership from the NJGOP.  We agree.  The Establishment blog claims that the "gas tax increase" could have been "weaponized" for the 2017 elections.  It could have been, but that would have meant NJGOP leadership -- up front.  Instead, the GOP Senate Leader gave encouragement to both Pro and Anti compromise leaders, never actually choosing a side until it didn't matter.  In the Assembly, it was no different, waiting for word from the Governor.  As for the state party, well only a fool would have looked to them for leadership.

You cannot blame people for not following, when you will not lead!

Having no principles or platform beyond that which bellowed from a single man (apart from those placed into his head by a small coterie of handlers) the NJGOP was NEVER going to "weaponize" the gas tax or indeed anything else.  Ha!  The NJGOP failed to "weaponize" the twenty-point election landslide of a sitting Republican Governor!!!

As for Kim Guadagno.  She did a dance all right.  She literally danced with the LGBT Left and the Pro-Aborts until realizing too late that they already had a perfectly fine candidate to vote for in Phil Murphy (and he's a DEMOCRAT too!)  When Guadagno's campaign team finally decided it was time to motivate the base, it was just weeks before Election Day and way too late.  The 2017 Guadagno campaign team (the same moes who managed to lose an incumbent Republican Congressman in 2016) have been rewarded by getting to run Bob Hugin's campaign for U.S. Senate this year.  Hey, it's the NJGOP, and nothing gets you promoted quicker than a crushing defeat -- the more, the better.

And that's the heart of the matter, isn't it?  The NJGOP are losers.  They are content to lose.  After eight years of having all resources directed at one entity and everyone else being told they had to lose rather than disrespect some scumbag deal with some disreputable Democrat, the NJGOP has adjusted to losing.  That's why so many of its "leaders" are "lobbyists" -- eels feeding off the bloated carcass that once held a majority in both Chambers and the Governor's office.  The NJGOP's leaders are literally in business with the Democrats.

Don't expect any of this to change any time soon.  There are still crumbs to be gathered, still bits of the carcass to eat off.  Only yesterday, the "mastermind" of Christie project visited a legislative caucus to bask in the praise of NJGOP leaders (reminiscent of the video below).  Under this "mastermind" the NJGOP lost ground in EVERY election cycle, even as "love" for the entity grew.  Christie was elected with legislative control a very real prospect... and left with a hollowed out party and legislative numbers so low that you have to go back to the period just after Watergate.

For his next act... the "mastermind" wants to de-conservative the NJGOP.  Get rid of all those folks who persist in having principles or who continue thinking in terms of the RNC platform.  They gotta go.  What needs to replace them are Republican candidates with the principles of... LOBBYISTS. 

Before the NJGOP Establishment thinks about providing us with another lecture, it should put these few things in place first:

(1) Get Republican leaders who aren't conflicted by having business dealings with Democrats.  Make sure they support the RNC platform.  Otherwise, it's like having a Roman Catholic leader who doesn't believe in Transubstantiation. 

(2) Sell Republican principles, ideas, solutions.  Lead.  Recruit candidates accordingly.  Build the party up by recruiting and sustaining believers. 

(3) Hire people who win elections.  Don't expect someone who has never tasted victory to find it.  That's like asking the wrong dog to sniff out a hamburger stand.  What you'll end up at is a truck stop shithouse.

You have to hand it to this Senator, she has balls

She loudly campaigned against the tax reform package, proposed an alternative plan that scrapped every tax cut, vilified everyone who supported Tax Reform as the worst sorts of human beings, became a media darling by dumping on her fellow Republicans, voted against Tax Reform with its Estate Tax phase out and tax cut for retirees -- and then turned around and took credit for the very tax cuts she opposed.  That's some balls.

Much like those heroes at AFP who put out a fundraising appeal that took credit for passing the Estate Tax phase out and four other tax cuts worth $1.4 billion to taxpayers but failed to mention that AFP opposed the legislation that was painstaking negotiated to achieve those tax cuts.  AFP wants credit for the work others did and instead of helping, AFP pissed on the people who did the work while they were doing it.  Then AFP memorialize it by taking a dump on them with its screw card.  Real scumbag behavior. 

So why is Senator Tom Kean Jr. celebrating with AFP on April 24th? 

Bankrupting the TTF is a Pyrrhic victory

"A Pyrrhic victory is a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat. Someone who wins a Pyrrhic victory has been victorious in some way. However, the heavy toll negates any sense of achievement or profit.  The phrase Pyrrhic victory is named after king Pyrrhus of Epirus, whose army suffered irreplaceable casualties in defeating the Romans at Heraclea in 280 BC and Asculum in 279 BC during the Pyrrhic War."  Pyrrhus said of his victory at Heraclea, "one more such victory and I will be utterly undone."

It is beginning to look as if elements of the GOP, the talk radio wing of the populist movement, and the petroleum industry (including AFP) have got their way so that in 16 short months we will see an increase in the tax on gasoline without any accompanying tax cuts.  The phase out of the Estate Tax -- long a conservative dream, long a priority of groups like AFP -- which was so close, will be gone, perhaps for a decade or two or forever. 

Economists will continue to advise people to take their money and flee New Jersey upon reaching retirement age -- so the flight of wealth, which could have been checked by the elimination of the tax on retirement income, will continue unabated.  Instead of making their donations to New Jersey charities, those donations will go to charities in states like Florida and North Carolina.

Early in 2018, the Transportation Trust Fund will finally be funded -- but low income working people and commuters and seniors and military veterans will not get their tax cuts.  They will be off the table -- and if they find their way back into legislation, the Republicans will have nothing to do with it.  It will be a gift, in whole, from the Democrats.

The crisis brought by willfully bankrupting the Transportation Trust Fund (TTF) is already causing county and local governments to consider raising property taxes to cover the shortfall in road and bridge repair funding that had been provided by the TTF.  The bill will come due next year -- when the whole Legislature and the Governor's office is up before the voters.  If a 23 cents per gallon increase in the tax on gasoline had been passed in June, the decline in the retail price per gallon since would have made up for that 23 cents and more.  The increase in property taxes brought on by the bankruptcy of the TTF will not be so painless. 

But still, there are some in the GOP who look on the "no gas tax" message as the gimmick they need to at least hang on to what they have in the Legislature.  It is easy to chant, so that even the very stupid can understand it.  It is to be the GOP version of "Black Lives Matter" -- and is meant to be just as angry and misdirected and violent.  For hatred of "the police", substitute "Trenton" and you have it in a nutshell (or case).

In fact, what the NJGOP needs are well-thought-out, adult, fully-fledged policies -- policies that are informed by principles.  Once you have these, any old advertising executive can figure out how to message it, package it, sell it.  The problem with the NJGOP is that they have nothing to sell.  So it ends up selling mistrust, anger, and even hate.  That's not a product to be proud of.

The conservative movement has found itself here before.  In the 1970's there were two competing brands -- the angry, emotional, populist "conservatism" of George Wallace (a Southern Democrat); and the optimistic, ideas-driven, ideological conservatism of Ronald Reagan (a California Republican).  Happily Reagan's ideas won out over Wallace's anger.  Today, it sometimes seems like it's anger on steroids.

The dearth of principle is such and the anger so keen that there are those out there who have turned a rather pedestrian decision about how to fund road and bridge maintenance (a users' tax on gasoline vs. property taxes vs. the general fund and so on) into a question as serious as "when does life begin"  or "does the state have the right to impose the death penalty"?  These are roads we are talking about -- there's nothing metaphysical about a road -- presumably we all agree that we need roads and we assume there's nobody out there who thinks they get built and maintained for free by the Keebler elves.

But the hatred -- both fringe and corporate -- has been astounding.  President Reagan himself believed in users' taxes as a fair form of taxation and raised the tax on gasoline as the fairest way to fund transportation projects.  But that hasn't stopped fringe folk like tea partier Mark Quick and NJ101.5's Bill Spadea from cranking up the hate.  They make it sound like a debate over transubstantiation. 

The world is going to hell and these people are making the means to fund road and bridge maintenance an article of faith.  How intellectually bankrupt must they be?

America is under an intense and sustained threat from abroad and elements of that threat are possibly slipping undetected through our borders.  Our economy has turned grey -- with unemployment and underemployment, foreclosure and poverty, as its major features.  Our culture is being frog-marched in a direction chosen, not at the ballot box, not by the people, but by elites in (of all things) the entertainment industry and their corporate and judicial fellow-travelers.  Nothing democratic about it.  In the history of this Republic, have people of faith ever been less fashionable and more under threat? 

Instead of standing up for freedom of conscience, what calls itself "Republican" now, what calls itself "conservative", the best they can muster is an appeal to a gimme.  The cost per gallon hasn't kept up with inflation, hasn't gone up in 28 years, states like Pennsylvania pay over 50 cents a gallon for their roads while we pay just 14 1/2 cents, but I don't care I want mine and I want it cheap, and I don't care if my daughter has to shower with a sex offender or if my church is closed down because its practice offends the ruling fashion.  I want cheap gas!

Well, for the next 16 months, you will.  While every other problem ignored gets worse.  This is what we are now.

Was George Carlin right about us?

Remember this from George Carlin?  Hey, we apologize if anyone is offended, but these are his words not ours.

Maybe George Carlin was right.  Maybe we get the politicians we deserve.  If they suck, it is a reflection of how we suck.  Or maybe, we have stopped listening, learning, and participating in any meaningful way.

Look at what has become known as the "increase in the gas tax."  Actually it started out as an economic restructuring plan, but because that took too long to explain, it has morphed into a tax swap:  An increase in the tax on petroleum fuel in return for a cut in the sales tax and a cut in the tax on retirement income.  But even now, many people just speak of it as the "increase in the gas tax."

Instead of a civil, rational discussion, we've had performance art -- Dadaist theatre featuring NJ 101.5's Bill Spadea replete with his electric blue phallic symbol.  A "prop" he calls it, something used to make a point.  Indeed. 

The point to remember about Bill Spadea is that when the Spadeas decided to locate a new business, they chose Pennsylvania.  When they decided to expand, they chose Latin America.  Which when you think about it, is kind of the whole argument here.

The level of noise on NJ 101.5 has given rise to everything from death threats to gross displays of selfishness and ignorance.  Look, we all understand that New Jersey hasn't raised the price it pays to repair and maintain its roads and bridges since 1988.  While everywhere else is paying 40 cents or even 50 cents tax on a gallon of gasoline, New Jersey insists it can make do on only 14 1/2 cents a gallon.  Of course, it can't, and so it has borrowed so much to cover up its unwillingness to pay that now it has to raise the tax 23 cents a gallon -- with 10 cents of that going just to pay interest on the debt.

And yet some dreadfully ignorant souls still argue that they "deserve" a discount gas tax because they pay so much in other taxes.  That's kind of like going into a restaurant and asking them to charge you 1988 prices because your mortgage and household bills are too high.  Just see if that works.  The waiter will explain to you that one has nothing to do with the other.

A dog in pain will bite someone trying to help it.  If the last few weeks have proven anything, it's that some New Jersey taxpayers are a lot like that dog in pain.

Here's the problem.  New Jerseyeans pay too much in taxes -- starting with the highest-in-the-nation property taxes.  That's because New Jerseyeans have allowed the unelected state Supreme Court to take charge of the revenue from the income tax -- which is supposed to fund education and provide property tax relief.  So instead of the elected Legislature apportioning the income tax money, the unelected Court does it -- and is responsible for the most inequitable funding formula in America.  Half the economically disadvantaged children in the state are left out in the cold because they live in rural and suburban communities. 

But our problems don't end there.  New Jersey is the most over-regulated state in America, making everything in the state -- both private and public sectors -- more expensive.  New Jersey also has a tax structure that chases away investment and suppresses job creation.  On top of this, New Jersey is a bad choice if you are planning on retiring.

Starting with the premise that New Jersey is one of the worst states for business in America (49 out of 50, according to Forbes) and that this kills job creation and results in the flight of capital and people from the state, Senator Steve Oroho got to work on the problem and created a plan to do something about it.  Senator Oroho is a Republican in a Legislature where both chambers are controlled by Democrats, so whatever plan he came up with would have to be a starting point for a compromise with the majority party.

This Oroho guy knows his stuff.  Generally in America, the legislators on the committee charged with budgeting and fiscal matters are lawyers, but Oroho is no lawyer.  Oroho is a numbers guy -- a certified financial planner and CPA. 

Before beginning his career of public service, Steve Oroho was a senior financial officer for S&P 500 companies like W. R. Grace and  Young & Rubicam. He's put companies back on a healthy financial track.

Oroho learned the budget process at the grassroots -- as a borough councilman and county freeholder.  It has taken decades of experience and thousands of pages of balance sheets to make Senator Oroho what he is today. He's the only member of the Senate Budget Committee with these kind of skills. 

Steve Oroho is the kind of guy that you would go to if you screwed up your finances and wanted to find a way to restore your family and your future to economic health.  We don't have many of these kinds of professionals in the legislature -- in any legislature -- anywhere in the country.  What we have are lawyers.

Look at Congress.  435 members of the House and 100 Senators and just 10 numbers guys in the bunch.  Want to know why the country is in so much debt?

So here's this numbers guy, following the numbers, and the numbers are the numbers -- New Jersey is halfway down the path to economic hell (no, this isn't hell, the Weimar Republic was hell, food riots in Venezuela is hell) and along comes this rare-in-politics numbers guy.  He comes up with a plan that begins to alter our state's downward trajectory.  You see, it's all about keeping capital in New Jersey and attracting more capital.  That's under the current economic rules.  We could, of course, turn Marxist or something.  Those would be different rules.  We could build a Berlin-style wall around the state to keep wealthy earners in New Jersey.  Those would be different rules too.  But given the current set of rules we're working under, this numbers guy Oroho put a plan together.

And just like if you had someone over to your kitchen table to tell your family that you couldn't continue your 2016 lifestyle on a 1988 budget, numbers guy Oroho had to honestly tell the folks here in New Jersey that they've been kicking that can down the road far too long.  Three decades.  What stays the same price for three decades? 

Yes, the gas tax is too low in New Jersey.  We've been paying 14 1/2 cents per gallon to fund our roads while states like Pennsylvania need to charge 50 cents a gallon.  But we are also one of just two states that have both an Estate Tax and an Inheritance Tax and at least one of those has got to go.  Most economists finger the Estate Tax for destroying family businesses and farms and for inhibiting capital retention -- so Oroho's plan got rid of it.  New Jersey is a terrible place to retire, one of the worst in the country -- so the numbers told Oroho that to keep seniors and their wealth in state (and closer to their families) you had to cut the state's tax on retirement income.  So Oroho's plan eliminated the tax on retirement income for over 90 percent of retirees. There were other tax cuts too, as Oroho followed the numbers, addressing problem after problem, as they presented on the balance sheets.  

When you talk "numbers" to most politicians, they think "polls" -- polling numbers.  When polls first came out -- back around the time of FDR, Truman, and Eisenhower -- they were used to help those lions lead.  You didn't "follow" a poll, you used the poll to test language that enabled you to better explain why you were doing the right thing.  That's not the way it works today.  Today polls tell politicians what to think and what to say.

Now we all know that tax increases do not test well in polls, while new spending on this great program or that tests very well.  And that's why we're in so much debt, because the numbers most politicians follow aren't the numbers a guy like Steve Oroho follows.  The numbers Steve Oroho follows tell us to pay our way, keep debt minimal, attract investment, allow business to create jobs --all those things that used to be called "fiscally conservative."    

So here you have numbers guy Oroho, following his balance sheet numbers, running head long into politicians following their polling numbers.  Add into the mix a brand new talk radio host looking for ratings numbers and the level of discourse quickly goes into the toilet.  Oroho is following the balance sheet numbers, the politicians are scared of the polling numbers, and the talk show host is whipping up his rating numbers using feverish misinformation.  We're not talking here about honest policy differences, fully thought out and backed up with well-rounded intellectual arguments.  What we're talking about are those throw away comments worthy of the surly drunk at the end of the bar.

So here's the question New Jerseyeans are going to have to look into the mirror and ask themselves:  Is New Jersey still a place where an honest guy, following the numbers, can propose a plan that addresses the economic and fiscal realities the state faces?  Or must politics and emotion dominate every discussion? 

Was George Carlin right when he said (and we paraphrase), "Screw hope"?

Beck & Doherty join left wingers to oppose tax cut for retirees

At yesterday's back to back press conferences at the State House in Trenton, GOP Senators Jennifer Beck and Mike Doherty joined with Democrat Senator Ray "Lord of Ass" Lesniak and Democrat Assemblyman John Wisniewski in opposing a plan that would give retirees an average $1,200 tax cut and phase out that destroyer of small businesses and family farms, the estate tax, while preventing an increase in property taxes to pay for local road and bridge repairs and maintenance. 

Beck and Doherty have their own plan, also supported by GOP Senator Gerald Cardinale, that freezes property tax relief to local governments for seven years and borrows heavily to run the state deeper into debt.  The Beck plan makes no tax cuts -- something the state teachers' union agrees with -- and leaves New Jersey's tax structure the worst in the region for retirees and the worst in the nation to grow a business and create jobs.

By refusing to fund roads and bridges through a petroleum-based user tax, the Beck plan gives out-of-state drivers a free ride while pushing the costs of maintenance and repair onto property taxpayers and future generations.  Groups  like AFP, which is funded by the petroleum industry, support Beck and Doherty, as do liberal organizations like the New Jersey Education Association and the Sierra Club.

When it comes to opposing the phase out of the Estate Tax, Liberal Assemblyman Wisniewski and talk show host Bill Spadea are both adamantly opposed.  They part company on a user tax on gasoline, with Wisniewski in support of an increase in the current tax, whereas Spadea would rather see no tax on gasoline at all and instead a substantial property tax increase to pay for roads and bridges.

All this is bound to have ramifications for the 2017 elections -- with the primaries now less than a year away.   How would retired voters behave if individual legislators voted against their $1,200 tax cut?  What would the effect be if it failed to become law and the state's retirees saw their $1,200 tax cut taken away?

In Jennifer Beck's District 11, 48 percent of all registered Republicans are aged 60 or over.  Just 20 percent are under age 45.  66 percent of Republican super voters (3 of 4 or above) are aged 60 or over.

42 percent of all registered Republicans in Mike Doherty's District 23 are aged 60 or over.  Just 21 percent are under age 45.  58 percent of Republican super voters (3 of 4 or above) are aged 60 or over.

In Senator Cardinale's District 39, 47 percent of all registered Republicans are aged 60 or over.  Just 18 percent are under age 45.  64 percent of Republican super voters (3 of 4 or above) are aged 60 or over.

Can these legislators afford to vote against a tax cut for retirees?