NJGOP: Controlling the narrative by controlling the data

By Rubashov

Last November, New Jersey Democrats weathered a national tidal wave that swept away Democrat majorities and gave the GOP its first gubernatorial win in Virginia since 2009. New Jersey Democrats maintained healthy majorities in both chambers of the Legislature and Phil Murphy bucked history to become the first Democrat governor to be re-elected since 1977.

But in the fantasyland inhabited by the cabal of consultants who dominate the NJGOP, New Jersey Republicans really won last November. The tide rose high enough for the GOP to pick up a respectable number of legislative seats and local offices… but Republicans still didn’t win control of the governor’s office or a single chamber of the Legislature. And the loss of two longtime Republican counties – Burlington and Somerset – was only more firmly established.

Why then is last November being sold as a “victory”? There are three reasons.

First, the consultants who have spent millions in losing the GOP congressional delegation, key counties like Burlington and Somerset, and dozens of other GOP candidates at the statewide, legislative district, county, and municipal levels have a reputation to maintain. They need something to pitch potential clients and keep existing ones. If you don’t have a victory to pitch, these guys have the talent to come up with a pitch that sounds like a victory – even when it isn’t. Hey, we all know bullshit fuels politics. This is just one example.

Second, Jack Ciattarelli is running for Governor in 2025 and he’s invested in this narrative. He needs to convince existing and potential donors to invest again, so it’s important that the blame not fall on his campaign and consultants. So the story goes: “We didn’t leave any votes on the table, did everything right, achieved something like a victory, and next time…”

Third, these consultants might as well own the NJGOP. They recruited Bob Hugin, made him a statewide candidate, and their latest statewide candidate – Jack Ciattarelli – handpicked Hugin for the job of NJGOP Chairman.

A big part of their narrative is that the Bob Hugin-Jack Ciattarrelli model of campaigning, in particular the turnout model, is the only “viable” way forward (to use their favorite term). Unfortunately, the two times that their model was actually used (2018 for Hugin and 2021 for Ciattarelli), it lost. And that’s kind of the opposite of “viable”.

You might have noticed that in contrast to past years, these consultants are going all out to present an examination of the data. They claim it will show how successful they were in not winning the governor’s office, state senate, and state assembly. The Save Jersey blog just did a post-mortem of sorts and the NJGOP is planning to put together a dog and pony show in March to further “prove” their point.

Some wags have pointed out that all this activity was hastened after the announcement that the GOP legislative leadership would conduct its own post-mortem into what was done and how it failed to capture a single legislative chamber. This is nothing new. Every legislative leadership in every state does it after every election cycle.

But the wags have also pointed out that this is the reason why NJGOP Chairman Bob Hugin is withholding access to the data necessary to complete a legislative post-mortem. Yes, it’s the Republican National Committee’s data, granted to each state committee as a resource for legislative and other party leaders to study voter history, conduct post-mortems, create voter turnout models, recruit candidates, and create direct-mail databases.

So why isn’t Bob Hugin and the NJGOP sharing this data with Republican legislative leaders? Could it be that they don't want the legislative post-mortem to happen? Why else would they want the NJGOP to be a one-idea operation?

Hugin and his consultants have the data. They are making selective use of it to create a narrative supporting the theory that the Bob Hugin-Jack Ciattarrelli model of campaigning, in particular the turnout model, is the only “viable” way forward. By withholding the data from competing models – like the one Bill Stepien’s team is working on for GOP legislative leaders – Hugin and his consultants are attempting to abort a potential competition of ideas.

Is this kind of cheating the Big Pharma way? If you fix it so there’s no competition allowed, you can pretty much do what you want and not be held to account for it.

For our part, we don’t like cheating. We think New Jersey Republicans can handle more than one way, in other words, a choice. And we don’t think they will explode just because they have more than one idea to consider.

Don’t cheat. Different perspectives are good things. Don't try to block them from happening. Don't try to stop them. From them, maybe you’ll figure out how to win… for real win. Not fantasy spin win.

What happens when you spin yourself and fail to come to grips with reality.

“In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”

George Orwell